BIDV Securities (BSC): Surpassing historical highs alongside the market

Consistent profit records broken - Affirming its position as one of BIDV's four pillars

Stock Market 2025: "Bad News - Good News"

2025 opens with many challenges for the Vietnamese stock market. Unpredictable fluctuations in the global economy, particularly US tariff policies, created a "black swan" effect, causing investors to become cautious and the market to undergo a period of sharp adjustment in the first months of the year. Liquidity declined, short-term capital stood on the sidelines, and many investors fell into a defensive stance.

After the adjustment phase, the financial market found balance and recovered. As macroeconomic factors were gradually absorbed, the domestic economic foundation stabilized, the KRX system was put into operation, and the market was upgraded from frontier to secondary emerging market after years of waiting, the stock market gradually regained its upward momentum with the return of long-term capital. Many leading stock groups have rebounded strongly, with the general index not only breaking through important resistance levels but also setting new milestones, reflecting investors' confidence in the long-term outlook.

Uptrend with the market - Profits hit new highs

For BSC, 2025 is the convergence point of three key factors: the right strategy, sufficient foundation, and a strong ecosystem. BSC's pre-tax profit in 2025 is estimated to reach VND 616 billion, continuously breaking the annual profit record since its establishment.

What matters is not the numbers, but the message behind them: BSC is entering a new "profit level," reflecting maturity in its business model, operational efficiency, and ability to leverage market cycles in a systematic and controlled manner.

Alongside this profitability is a strong expansion in scale. After three years of strategic cooperation with Hana Securities, BSC's total assets have exceeded VND 16 trillion, an increase of 2.8 times, placing it among the fastest-growing companies in Vietnam's securities industry. Margin debt exceeds VND 9 trillion, demonstrating investors' confidence in BSC's financial capabilities and services.

However, what sets BSC apart during this dynamic market phase is the quality of its assets.

Rapid growth without overdue or bad debts; the entire asset portfolio consists of profitable assets, with no outstanding financial issues awaiting resolution. This is the core foundation that enables BSC to accelerate while maintaining stability. This foundation is also highly valued by partners and investors in the market.

With its strong growth momentum and the continuous setting of new business records, BSC affirms its role as one of the four pillars in BIDV's strategy to develop its financial ecosystem.

The strong synergy from the BIDV ecosystem

If the market is the "engine," then the BIDV ecosystem is the strategic driving force behind BSC's growth momentum in 2025

The synergistic power of the network of 189 branches and transaction offices has brought cross-selling activities to fruition, contributing more than 50% of new accounts opened. At the same time, IB activities have also been boosted by the effective exploitation of BIDV's institutional customer base, confirming that BSC is not growing alone but developing sustainably based on a well-structured ecosystem.

The technological milestone of 2025 is affirmed through the comprehensive integration of securities investment features into BIDV SmartBanking. This step brings a seamless "All-in-one" financial experience: from opening an account, depositing money to trading and managing assets. This is a strategic bridge that helps BSC reach millions of digital banking users, while elevating BIDV's position as a modern, multi-service financial institution.

In the near future, BSC aims to establish a subsidiary fund management company. This will be the final piece in creating a comprehensive product ecosystem for BIDV's customers, especially for BIDV's wealthy and high-net-worth clients (Private Banking).

Stock Market 2026: Setting a New Benchmark

The stock market in 2026 is expected to be a year that sets a new benchmark in terms of scale, liquidity, and growth quality. The fundamental factors that have supported the market in recent years will continue to prevail in 2026, such as:

(1) Macroeconomic stability, with policies focused on supporting high economic growth. With an economic growth target of 10%, fiscal and monetary policies will be managed flexibly and openly. In addition to traditional pillars, the economy is shifting strongly towards new drivers of the digital economy, technology, and green transformation.

(2) Stable interest rates for most of 2025 will help listed companies' profits grow by over 20% for the fourth consecutive quarter. Stable interest rates continue to be a foundation supporting the forecast of stable profit growth of 17% - 20% for listed companies. This is a key factor stimulating a strong shift of domestic capital to the stock market, effectively absorbing supply in the market.

(3) Regulatory authorities are striving to reform the capital market in terms of legal framework, technological infrastructure, and new products. Reforms to shorten transaction times, operate CCPs, and launch products (sell securities pending delivery, intraday trading, expanded derivatives, non-voting certificates, etc.) in 2026 and subsequent years will provide investors with more choices in products and investment tools.

(4) The shift in economic drivers towards the digital economy, technology, data, high-tech supply chains, renewable energy, green economy, logistics, and infrastructure will also open up new industry opportunities and leading stock groups, increasing market depth. Along with that, the IPO wave shows signs of warming up in 2025 and is likely to spread to 2026 with many deals involving infrastructure companies such as Gelex, Hoa Phat Agriculture, Dien May Xanh, Long Chau, etc., improving the market's attractiveness.

(5) Global market cycles and the momentum of market upgrades attract foreign capital. The FED and major central banks are entering a clear easing cycle, leading to a global capital flow trend back to high-growth markets with attractive valuations. Vietnam is one of the potential markets thanks to its high growth, low P/E valuation, and upgrade to emerging market status. Key reforms to upgrade the market, such as information standardization, market transparency, improved payment mechanisms, and improved foreign room factors, help foreign capital easily participate in the market.

(6) Domestic investors are growing stronger and more confident. The growth of the middle class and domestic financial institutions (pension funds, insurance) creates a solid liquidity base. Individual investors are becoming more confident and approaching the market more systematically thanks to the support of technology and data.

Despite these fundamental advantages, the 2026 stock market still faces intertwined challenges from geopolitical volatility, the slowdown in the global economy, and short-term pressure on exchange rates and interest rates due to high capital demand. However, BSC believes that these factors are only temporary and will not be enough to reverse the long-term upward trend or diminish the intrinsic appeal of the Vietnamese market.

Under the base scenario, BSC forecasts the VN-Index to increase by 9.5% in 2026, assuming EPS growth of +17% and a P/E ratio of 15.5 times. Liquidity is projected at 1.06 billion USD per session. The market is transitioning from a recovery phase to a growth phase, driven primarily by catalysts from the domestic market.

Market profit growth is concentrated in certain sectors such as Basic Resources, Retail, Construction Materials, and Banking. The upward momentum will spread to other stock groups rather than being concentrated in a few groups as in 2025. BSC positively assesses the residential real estate, information technology, construction materials, electricity - oil and gas, and construction and installation sectors, which will benefit directly from accelerated infrastructure investment, digital transformation, and new project launches. In addition, the consumer retail, banking, securities, and aviation sectors will benefit from the expansion of domestic consumption activities.

Stock investment opportunities will focus on sectors that benefit, particularly large private stocks poised for development in line with state policy. Some notable stocks include (VHM, DXG), Construction Materials (HPG, DHA), Construction (CTD, ..), Oil and Gas (GAS, PVD, PVS), Consumer Retail (MWG, MSN).

BSC