Investment Strategy 2026: The proof of the pudding is in the eating

Looking back at history, the four major price growth cycles of the Vietnamese stock market include the periods 2005–2007, 2009–2010, 2016–2018, 2020–2022, and the period starting in 2025, all of which are linked to important turning points in the economy. Moving into the post-2025 phase, the market is converging on many conditions to enter its fifth price growth cycle, with a significantly improved macroeconomic foundation, corporate profits entering an expansion phase, and domestic and foreign cash flows being activated simultaneously.

First, Vietnam's economy is entering a phase of higher and more stable growth compared to previous cycles. While previous growth cycles relied heavily on short-term monetary easing measures, the current cycle is supported by proactive and flexible management, with close coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, aimed at medium- to long-term growth targets. A series of new resolutions and policies are gradually removing institutional bottlenecks, unlocking social resources, and opening up new growth opportunities in areas such as digital transformation, technology and data, high-tech supply chains, renewable energy, green economy, logistics, and infrastructure.

Second, overall market profits are projected to grow by approximately 17% per year in the 2026 period, exceeding the long-term average. The main drivers come from the credit recovery cycle, improved domestic consumption, and a new wave of investment in technology, infrastructure, and energy. Past cycles show that periods of accelerated public investment often coincide with an expansion in corporate profits, particularly in the banking, construction, materials, and industrial park sectors.

Third, domestic capital flows are increasingly playing a pivotal role in the market. The rapid expansion of the middle class, coupled with the growing popularity of stock investment as an investment channel, is reflected in the number of new accounts opened and the high liquidity maintained in recent years. In addition, the upgrade to emerging market status not only attracts international capital but also promotes market restructuring towards increasing the proportion of institutional investors, raising corporate governance standards, and developing new investment products, thereby strengthening the role of the stock market as a medium- to long-term capital raising channel for the economy.

Based on a combination of macroeconomic factors, policies, profits, and cash flow, the Vietnamese stock market is poised to enter its fifth price growth cycle in history, characterized by a more mature, sustainable, and long-term vision compared to previous cycles.

For detailed insights, refer to the 2026 Investment Strategy Report "The Long Road Reveals the True Horse": Here.

Source: BIDV Securities (BSC)