March 19 Morning Briefing: The U.S. Federal Reserve decides to keep interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%

Macroeconomic News:

• FED: Decided to keep interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% as policymakers weigh higher-than-expected inflation, mixed signals from the labor market, and the conflict in Iran.
• FED: Summary of the March 2026 FOMC meeting; the FED assessed that inflation remains relatively high, though tariff-driven inflation is expected to ease by mid-year. The median interest rate path forecast remains unchanged, but there has been a significant shift toward fewer rate cuts. If there is no progress on inflation, there will be no rate cuts this year. The “dot plot”—which reflects the forecasts of individual FOMC members—suggests the possibility of one rate cut this year and another in 2027.
• BoC: Kept the policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady stance as inflation remains near target and the economy continues to adjust to global trade disruptions.
• EU: February inflation in the Eurozone was confirmed to remain unchanged from the initial estimate, with the Consumer Price Index rising 1.9% year-over-year and core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, both higher than the previous month.
• South Korea: The South Korean Ministry of Finance announced that the government plans to disburse a total of 750 billion won (equivalent to $502.8 million) over the next two years to commercialize artificial intelligence (AI) applications.
• Vietnam: An ODA loan worth 50 billion yen under the budget support program for green transition between Vietnam and Japan, aimed at supporting Vietnam’s strategies and policies on green growth and climate change adaptation, is expected to be signed in March 2026.

Market News:

• United States: Launch of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) swap program under the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreement. Accordingly, the U.S. Department of Energy plans to supply approximately 86 million barrels of oil through a bidding process, accompanied by a premium ranging from 18% to 22%.
• Vietnam: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh received a delegation from the Eisenhower Foundation currently visiting and working in Vietnam. During the meeting, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh requested that the U.S. remove Vietnam from the Strategic Export Control List and recognize its market economy status
• Vietnam: The Ministry of Home Affairs has proposed increasing the base salary from 2.34 million to 2.53 million VND per month effective July 1, 2026, representing an approximate 8.1% increase, to further improve public sector incomes.
• MCH: The State Securities Commission (SSC) announced that it has received a filing notifying an increase in MCH’s foreign ownership ratio to the maximum level of 100% (the previous limit was 50%).
• STB: Approved several documents presented at the 2026 Annual General Meeting regarding the change of the company’s headquarters; proposals to amend and supplement the Articles of Association and governance documents; and a request to extend the restructuring plan until 2030.
• GEE: Announced materials for the 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. According to the documents presented to shareholders, GELEX Electric aims for consolidated net revenue of VND 27,242 billion in 2026, an increase of approximately 7% compared to the 2025 results.
• ACV: Appointed Mr. Le Van Kien as Acting Chairman of the Board of Directors following a series of senior management changes related to legal matters.

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Source: BIDV Securities (BSC)