Stock Market Outlook for 2026: "The Era of Growth – The Great Wave of Transformation"
The 2026 stock market is expected to be a year defined by new benchmarks in terms of scale, liquidity, and growth quality. The fundamental factors that have supported the market in recent years will continue to prevail in 2026, such as:
(1) Stable macroeconomic conditions, with policies focused on supporting high economic growth. With an economic growth target of 10%, fiscal and monetary policies will be managed flexibly and openly. Alongside traditional pillars, the economy is shifting strongly towards new drivers such as the digital economy, technology, and green transformation.
(2) Stable interest rates for most of 2025 will help listed companies' profits grow by over 20% for the fourth consecutive quarter. Stable interest rates continue to be a foundation supporting the forecast of stable profit growth of 17% - 20% for listed companies. This is a key factor stimulating a strong shift of domestic capital to the stock market, effectively absorbing supply in the market.
(3) Regulatory authorities are striving to reform the capital market in terms of legal frameworks, technological infrastructure, and new products. Reforms to shorten transaction times, operate CCPs, and launch products (selling securities pending delivery, intraday trading, expanded derivatives, non-voting certificates, etc.) in 2026 and subsequent years will provide investors with more choices in products and investment tools.
(4) The shift in economic drivers towards the digital economy, technology, data, high-tech supply chains, renewable energy, green economy, logistics, and infrastructure will also open up new industry opportunities and leading stock groups, increasing market depth. Along with that, the IPO wave shows signs of warming up in 2025 and is likely to spread to 2026 with many typical deals: Gelex Infrastructure, Hoa Phat Agriculture, Dien May Xanh, Long Chau, etc., improving the market's attractiveness.
(5) Global market cycles and the momentum of upgrading attract foreign capital. The FED and major central banks are entering a clear easing cycle, leading to a global capital flow trend back to high-growth markets with attractive valuations. Vietnam is one of the potential markets thanks to its high growth, low P/E valuation, and upgrade to emerging market status. Key reforms to upgrade the market, such as information standardization, market transparency, improved payment mechanisms, and improved foreign room factors, facilitate foreign capital participation in the market.
(6) Domestic investors are growing stronger and more confident. The growth of the middle class and domestic financial institutions (pension funds, insurance) has created a solid liquidity base. Individual investors are becoming more confident and approaching the market in a more structured manner thanks to the support of technology and data.
Despite these fundamental advantages, the 2026 stock market still faces intertwined challenges from geopolitical volatility, the slowdown in the global economy, and short-term pressure on exchange rates and interest rates due to high capital demand. However, BSC believes these factors are temporary and insufficient to reverse the long-term upward trend or diminish the inherent appeal of the Vietnamese market.
Under the base scenario, BSC forecasts the VN-Index to rise 9.5% in 2026, assuming EPS growth of +17% and a P/E ratio of 15.5 times. Liquidity is projected at 1.06 billion USD per session. The market will transition from a recovery phase to a growth phase, driven primarily by catalysts from the domestic market.
Market profit growth is concentrated in certain sectors such as: basic resources, retail, construction materials, and banking. The upward momentum will spread to other stock groups rather than concentrating on a few groups as in 2025. BSC positively assesses the residential real estate, information technology, construction materials, electricity – oil and gas, and construction sectors, which will benefit directly from accelerated infrastructure investment, digital transformation, and new project launches. Additionally, the consumer retail, banking, securities, and aviation sectors will benefit from expanded domestic consumption activities.
Stock investment opportunities will focus on beneficiary sectors, particularly large private stocks poised for development in line with state directives. Some notable stocks include (VHM, DXG), Construction Materials (HPG, DHA), Construction (CTD, ..), Oil and Gas (GAS, PVD, PVS), Consumer Retail (MWG, MSN)
For detailed insights, refer to the 2026 Strategic Report "The Era of Growth – The Great Dragon Wave" here.
