Stock Market Outlook for the New Week: VN-Index Consolidates Above the 200-Day SMA, Awaits Trend Confirmation
The VN-Index is trading between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, maintaining a balanced weighting while awaiting opportunities to increase stock exposure during the current consolidation phase testing the 1,650-point support level.
GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Many stock markets rose this week amid
sharp oil price fluctuations. Following President Trump’s remarks that the U.S. is very close to ending the war with Iran and emphasizing that a strong attack on Iran is expected within the next 2 to 3 weeks, oil prices surged nearly 10%. However, the U.S. stock market is gradually decoupling from oil price movements after rebounding from its lows. Markets remain generally volatile amid uncertain news regarding the conflict.
- U.S. stock indices rose an average of 3.2% through April 3; the EU600 +3.7%, Nikkei 225 -0.6%; CSI 300 -1.4%. In contrast to the previous week, U.S. and European stock markets recovered significantly, while Asian stock markets saw a slight
decline. - Commodity indices rose 5.3%, with energy (oil +18%) and metals (gold +6.8%, silver +7.3%, platinum +6.8%, aluminum +6.8%, lead +6.9%, zinc +5.7%) while natural gas fell -4.4% and some agricultural commodities declined (tea -4.5%, sugar -5.1%)
- The DXY index edged lower and fell below the 100-point mark, with U.S. Treasury yields dropping 0.1% to 4.31%.
EU CPI surged 2.5% year-over-year in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, the highest level since January 2026, driven by the impact of the Middle East conflict. The Middle East conflict is having an increasingly significant impact on Europe, a region heavily reliant on energy from that region. The ECB affirmed it will not allow inflation to spike as it did following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while committing to act as necessary. Markets forecast that inflation will continue to accelerate, putting pressure on the ECB and betting on the likelihood of three interest rate hikes, each by 0.25%, in 2026.
Key events to watch next week include the OPEC meeting; PMI data from Canada, the UK, the EU, and the US; CPI figures from China and the US; New Zealand’s central bank interest rates and monetary policy minutes; the FOMC minutes; durable goods orders, the consumer confidence index, and initial jobless claims.
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Maintains Mild Uptrend Thanks to Recovery in VIC Stocks
The VN-Index rose 0.7%, marking its second consecutive week of gains with trading volume increasing by just 4%. After a positive mid-week rally that broke through the key technical level of the 200-day moving average (SMA200), the index returned to a range-bound state, weakening under selling pressure at higher price levels and disrupted stock rotation driven by the Middle East conflict. The VN-Index remains above key support levels, opening opportunities for accumulation and building momentum for gains next week.
- The VIC stock group supported the index, contributing a 28-point gain, while the banking sector (VCB, CTG, TCB) subtracted 5 points from the VN-Index.
- 6 out of 18 sectors rose. Real estate rose 7.15%, while the food and beverage sector fell sharply by 9.52%. With no growth in capital inflows and rapid market fluctuations, the market gradually weakened toward the end of the week.
- Foreign investors maintained a net selling position but reduced their net selling volume to $44 million from $70 million the previous week.
The 16th National Assembly is scheduled to open on the morning of April 6 and close on April 24. At its first session, the National Assembly will review and decide on 8 draft laws and 1 resolution; decide on 5 groups of issues regarding socio-economic affairs, finance, the budget, and oversight; and adopt resolutions on culture, the central administration of Dong Nai City, and other matters. Notably, the National Assembly will dedicate one week to organizing the administrative structure and appointing senior officials. The new leadership of the state will be approved, providing fresh momentum for the implementation of socio-economic tasks in line with the Central Committee’s directives.
The market is trading between the SMA100 and SMA200, maintaining a balanced weighting while awaiting opportunities to increase stock exposure during the corrective phase testing the 1,650-point support level, or trading with the trend once the market breaks above 1,750 points.
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Source: BIDV Securities (BSC)
